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President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are fighting neck and neck for voter backing in the pivotal “Blue Wall” swing states, according to the latest Morning Consult surveys conducted on behalf of Bloomberg News, as the race in Nevada shifts further from the incumbent Democrat.
In Arizona, Biden has seen no bump in support — but the latest edition of our swing-state survey suggests the issue matrix may be moving in his favor following a major state Supreme Court decision on abortion rights.
State of the swing-state race
Trump is maintaining his edge over Biden across much of the swing-state map, posting his strongest advantages yet over the incumbent in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. Along with his lead over Biden in Georgia, Trump has also retaken an advantage in Wisconsin and, more narrowly, in Pennsylvania, with both gaps within the surveys’ margins of error.
While Trump remains dominant across most swing states, Biden has, for the first time, taken a lead over the presumptive Republican nominee in Michigan after consistent growth in support since January driven by improvements among women and older voters.
Along with the president’s edge in Michigan, Democrats also have a lead over their Republican counterparts on the generic congressional ballot — something that’s rare across the swing-state map. Congressional Republicans lead Democrats on the generic ballot in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while the two parties are virtually tied in Pennsylvania.
In each of the seven states, there’s hardly any difference between Biden’s share of support and that of a generic Democratic congressional candidate, while the average Republican underperforms Trump in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. This appears to be because Biden’s supporters are slightly more loyal to their party’s congressional candidate than Trump’s are, except in Nevada.
The swing-state issue matrix
Our April survey began fielding just as Arizona’s Supreme Court upheld an 1864 law that makes abortion illegal in all cases except when the mother's life is at risk. In turn, voters in the state are more likely than ever before this election cycle to cite abortion as their No. 1 issue for the 2024 elections when forced to pick one.
According to the latest data, 12% of Arizona voters cite abortion as their single most important issue when thinking about their 2024 votes, up from 5% who said the same in October and from 8% in March. There was a similar spike in abortion’s salience in Pennsylvania (from 8% in March to 13% in April) as interest in the economy ticked downward or remained stable across the swing states surveyed.
While Trump continues to hold a major edge over Biden on the economy, the Democrat has managed to widen his swing-state trust advantage over Trump on abortion from a 5 percentage point edge in October to a 9-point lead in April.
Similarly to abortion, Biden has made up ground across the swing states when it comes to voters’ trust in handling policy matters involving seniors such as Medicare and Social Security. Since October, the share of swing-state voters who trust Biden the most to handle this policy portfolio has increased from 42% to 45%, while the share who express confidence in Trump has gone unchanged, at 39%.
Biden — who has improved his standing among the oldest swing-state voters since our monthly tracking began — is trusted by half of those ages 65 and older to handle senior services as he faces a rival who recently said, “there’s a lot you can do in terms of entitlements in terms of cutting.”
Policy measures that would cut benefits for most recipients are not popular, though the average swing-state voter does appear more likely than not to approve of slashing them for the rich.
Over half of swing-state voters (57%) said they favor trimming benefits for higher-income Americans, compared with just about a quarter who back raising the retirement age or changing the way Social Security cost of living adjustments are made in order to trim spending.
As was reflected in March’s survey, taxing the rich is incredibly popular among swing-state voters: Roughly 2 in 3 support raising taxes on billionaires in order to extend the life of Social Security, and more than half favor expanding the income that is subject to Social Security taxes, with little variation by state.
Just over a third of voters would back increasing payroll taxes to help the program’s solvency as voters in each of the seven states continue to show concern that their paychecks are not going far enough, as indicated by more swing-state voters perceiving prices as increasing than did so last month.
The bottom line
As has been reflected in our national surveys, Biden is performing decently with America’s oldest voters — especially when compared with his own 2020 ballot performance. But he’s lost ground with the youngest voters, both nationwide and in these key states, in a major warning sign for his re-election chances.
The picture is less clear in the race for control of Congress, though the surveys suggest Democrats may need Biden to improve his standing given how closely aligned their numbers are with his on the generic ballot.
Voters’ frustrations with the economy and the cost of living under Biden’s presidency continue to help Trump even as policy matters where the presumptive Republican candidate lacks voter trust become more salient on the campaign trail, either due to uncontrollable events (the Arizona Supreme Court decision) or his own words (Trump’s entitlements posture).
As the campaign unfolds over the coming months, the surveys show that Biden would benefit from highlighting Trump’s waffling on policies regarding seniors, given how his strongest numbers come from states where he performs best with older voters than with younger ones. But if young people decide to show up at the polls this fall, these surveys continue to show he needs to improve his numbers with them in order to win re-election.
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