Morning Consult/Politico polling in mid-November pegged Trump as the prohibitive favorite in a hypothetical 2024 presidential primary. The survey also found Republican voters believe Trump to be more aligned with the country’s and the GOP’s best interests compared to Republicans on Capitol Hill.
“Where you see the real excitement and energy within the party for the future is with people like Dan Crenshaw, Tim Scott, Josh Hawley -- people of that younger generation that speak to working-class voters and can talk to Black and Hispanic communities,” said Gregg Keller, a Trump-supporting Republican strategist and former executive director of the American Conservative Union. “But Trump is the 800-pound gorilla. To be clear, if Trump were to decide to run again, it would be difficult or impossible to defeat him in the primary.”
While some in recent years have posited that a failed re-election bid may weaken Trump’s standing with the base, much of the evidence gathered in recent weeks suggests otherwise. His attacks against Fox News, must-watch television for the conservative faithful, dampened the network’s favorability among Republican voters, according to Morning Consult Brand Intelligence data. He also waged a rhetorical war against Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, whom he effectively accused of ducking a challenge to Biden’s victory in the state, and boasted about the quick damage it inflicted on the Republican’s approval rating.
Trump’s grip on the base also has its upside for Republicans: He continues to be a force in campaign fundraising as the party works to erode Democrats’ advantage with small-dollar efforts. Gerrit Lansing, president of the GOP fundraising platform WinRed, said while others in the party have made up ground in the space, Trump is the best online fundraiser in politics, and he expects that to continue.
“Candidates can go out and use Trump imagery and say, ‘I’m with Trump and, in fact half, of the donation you make to me will go to Trump and my campaign.’ Trump can do the opposite, and send an email out saying, ‘I’m supporting this person,’” he said. “I think that’s a big part of their plan -- make these endorsements and drive donations.”
Charlie Black, a Washington lobbyist with extensive experience in presidential politics, said the January runoffs in Georgia, where Republican Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue are defending seats that will decide which party holds a majority in the chamber for the first two years of Biden’s presidency, mark an early test case for whether Republicans can “manage the enthusiasm” Trump brings to the table without him on the ballot, with an eye toward the 2022 midterm elections.
“It’s not directly analogous, because special elections have low turnout,” Black said. “But when the Trump people come out and vote, they’re almost unanimously Republicans.”
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